Part 1 of Essay
Since hitting a low of $US0.5530 on 28 August, the AUD has recovered by over 17% to a high of $US0.6480 on 19 November. Several factors have been at work to boost the A$ against the $US over this time. · The RBA supported the A$ in late August-early September, as documented in the Semi-annual Statement of Monetary Policy ( ....

Part 2 of Essay
.... $US0.82 in December 1996. A number of forecasts have been published suggesting that further A$ appreciation is in prospect for the year ahead. While it is commonly accepted that "the trend is your friend", all the fundamentals must be taken into account in the longer term. The fundamentals currently being overlooked (which we feel will come to matter) are (1) the outlook for commodity prices; (2) the extent of the Asian recession, (3) the path of the current account deficit deterioration and (4) the prospects ....